Newsletter #204 2022 Survey Results
Let's see how we did in forecasting last year and what we anticipate for 2023
Announcements
Ok this one is longer than usual, but I wanted to process both our Survey results from last year as well as the forecasts we crowdsourced for 2023
I included as many graphics as possible which made it longer, but other than that I hope y’all get actionable info!
Also, Substack supports native polls! Ima be experimenting with this feature by doing more polls throughout the year
Forecasts from 2022
Are you worried about Omicron and Covid in the coming year?
Y'all were split, more worried about our policy response than Omicron itself
how should we evaluate this? I was so much worse at formulating questions last year hahaa
Is Ghislaine Maxwell going to be convicted as part of Jeffrey Espstein's sex ring?
Yes at 68% and we were right!
What's the likelihood of Russian military conflict over Ukraine by the end of the year?
So sad that this isn't over....
What's the likelihood of China "taking over" Taiwan they way they did with Hong Kong by the end of the year?
We were more worried last year than this year, which I don't think is the right belief update lol
What worries you the most about 2022?
Covid lingering and new variants -- looks really likely that Covid becomes endemic, but more importantly >65m people now have long-covid which is going to be a major global health challenge
Real estate bubble -- I'm excited to buy my parents a house despite the higher interest rates precisely bc we are going to be on the other side of the correction in 2024!!!
Midterm elections and polarization -- clearly the midterms didn't play the way most of us expected regardless of political affiliation, but the key question is what's going to happen to the GOP now? After getting wrecked, is this the game over moment for Trumpism or will the GOP become even more desperate and further radicalize?
Economic collapse from Covid restrictions -- most of the economic damage seems to have happened to the children whose education got compromised
What are you most excited about 2022?
Traveling -- I wish y'all lots of adventures in 2023!
Biotech and Covid Therapeutics -- mRNA vaccines now effective against RSV and CRISPR cancer trials are looking promising and appetite-suppressing drugs against obesity!
Forecasts for 2023
What's the likelihood of a Recession in 2023?
I'm really interested to see how this plays out bc the media and the economic establishment are on two different sides of this
Are housing prices going down by at least 20% in 2023?
I already posted about the real estate bubble popping, but personally I'm ok with housing prices crashing further in 2023 bc it further improves buying opportunities ahaha
and before y'all get salty about this, if you are on the other side of housing then you can't complain bc you locked in your mortgage at century-low rates!
Is the Federal Reserve going to stop increasing interest rates in 2023?
Pretty moderate split. Since inflation is coming down, I think it's more likely than not.
Will the War in Ukraine end in 2023?
We are so pessimistic
What worries you the most about 2023?
Recession, inflation, and food prices -- I am a lot less worried about this
Polarization and elite competition -- I am hoping that the country gets fatigued about politics so that people go back to worrying about the real problems in their lives as oppose to culture wars
"precedent set by Elon on how tech CEOs and people in the field in general can act without consequence" -- will this also motivate more private equity firms doing buyouts of late-stage tech companies and restructing them by cutting over half the workforce? That'd be an interesting plot-twist
Putin going psycho + Ukraine war escalating to nuclear -- ya…..
What are you most excited about 2023?
Nuclear Fusion -- it's still debated whether the recent breakthroughs will translate into real breakthroughs, but the CEO of OpenAI is massively invested in Helion which seems very promising
Personal fitness -- I'm super-supportive of all of you who picked this as your goal in 2023. Will share my recent breakthroughs in this area soon!
ChatGPT and the rise of AI -- it's been turly groundbreaking for me in the context of programming and it's going to become an ever-larger aspect of Cassandra's work with legal tech
Results from 2022
What was the biggest tragedy/blunder of 2022?
Russia won
No Red Wave lost
What was the biggest victory/brilliance of 2022?
Nuclear Fusion breakthoughs won!
World population rise and the UK electing its first Indian PM were the least exciting ones lol
Was Elon buying Twitter for $44b a mistake/bad thing?
I've gone back and forth on the Elon Musk acquisition of Twitter. Originally thought he way overpaid and it wouldn't be a good deal and was surprised many top VCs invested. Then thought about it a bit more and realized it could be a decent deal (i.e. remove massive inefficiencies, leverage subscription-Twitter Blue to get payment information and move Twitter toward a payments platform, bring 'scrappy agile startup culture' to increase rate of product releases, Elon 'glow', etc.) but then was surprised to see Elon make what seemed like silly political gestures or what appeared to be ego-driven moves with no real upside (e.g. Nanci Pelosi husband conspiracy, banning Elonjet, not allowing links to other platforms, etc.), now wondering how much was all in service of "no publicity is bad publicity" or if that's just being used to retroactively justify some pretty bad management decisions. I'm a net Elon fan though, and while Elon hate has gotten more in-vogue, the fact is (1) people have been 'predicting' Twitter's downfall for the last few months, and it is still alive and well - remember when everyone was saying that all the core systems engineers left and "well informed sources" were saying the platform would go under in weeks? (2) Elon has an exceptional track record in beating the odds and innovating. It has gotten popular to cast doubt on his track record / entrepreneurial edge and to portray Elon as this greedy capitalist that just takes credit for actual innovators, but anyone who truly thinks this just hasn't done their research. His technical knowledge is acclaimed by literal rocket scientists at top research universities, and anyone who thinks he doesn't know his companies and products in-and-out should read or listen to some of the publicly available Tesla earnings calls. Not saying Twitter will be a fantastic deal, but Elon might be the greatest, scrappiest entrepreneur we will come across in our lifetime - and that should be respected.
What's something you changed your mind about this past year?
Hunter Biden Laptop -- yea, if Elon was better at PR the Twitter files would have been the biggest story of the year
I have a new-found appreciation for the credit cycle and the fact that the last 10 years have been amazing prosperous-- things don't just keep going "up" -- ain't that the truth!
I updated in favour of starting a family at a younger age (within one's twenties) -- many of you are having kids so I'm becoming more interested in the discussion about parenting timelines
What was your favorite book this past year?
Man's Search for Meaning -- truly one of the best books I've ever read: an Holocoust survivor discovers a new form of therapy based on existentialism
The Elephant in the Brain -- another one of my all-time favorites that truly red-pilled bc I now question my motives and see "signaling games" everywhere!
Scout Mindset -- I want to read this as well bc Rationalism is how I level up my debate tactics ahaha
What's a movie or TV show you watched this year that you recommend to everyone?
The Wire -- almost done with the last season with @Orrod! Truly one of the best if not the best story I've ever enjoyed!
White Lotus...I just couldn't get into it even though I watched the entire 2nd season....
Avatar, in the theatre
Everything Everywhere All At Once -- I really updated my views on this movie
What's a book you plan on reading in 2023?
Gamer Theory by MkEnzie Wark -- I'm intrigued by this one too! I hadn't heard about it before one of y'all suggested it!
Machine Learning Design Patterns -- I feel like I should read this too as part of my ML deep dive!
The New Breed: What Our History with Animals Reveals About Our Future with Robots -- seems super interesting!
The Cold Start Problem: How to Start and Scale Network Effects by Andrew Chen -- network effects are such a critical aspect of truly valuable businesses!
What was your favorite data visualization from the Newsletter?
What's a question you'd like me to answer through my "research" in 2023?
How to effectively be healthier and lose weight -- yep, ima deep dive into this once I hit 20% body fat
Implications of far right/transphobia intersection -- I owe it to our trans friends on here to do a better job of keeping tabs on this issue!
What realistic business models are likely to appear if Web3/crypto takes off (or is partially adopted)? -- great question that I shall deep dive this year
nootropics that actually work, and for what. Testing factors like energy, focus, sleep quality, etc -- I'm low-key skeptical of nootropics these days besides Modafanil (and Adrafanil) and L-Theanine. Sleep > Diet > Exercise > Caffeine
